BTC5.cloud — BTC 5-Minute Predictions

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预判中

T-2min · 2-Minute Plan--

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目标价格 · 当期开盘

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Target (TWAP open)

当前价格 · TWAP均值(结算)

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现货 · 秒级实时

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vs TWAP—

10s—

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O — · H — · L — · C —

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Per-window record (last 7 days · newest first · paged)

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Markers (%B = candle position within BOLL(20,2.5)): 🔴 C1 near upper band (%B≥0.8) → DOWN · C3 near mid band (0.45~0.55) — avoid; 🟢 C2 near lower band (%B≤0.2) → UP — bonus

Window	Call	Prob	Actual	Result	Src

Directional call 2 min before window close, from the Chainlink gap · per-window record (newest first · gap = TWAP spot − target · ≥0 = UP · ties count as Up)

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Window	Call	gap($)	Actual	Result	Src

Markers (%B = candle position within BOLL(20,2.5); red/green dot = triggered on any leg): 🔴 C1 near upper band (%B≥0.8) → DOWN · C3 near mid (0.45~0.55) — avoid (solo success 76~78%; removing them adds +5.4pp to plan success); 🟢 C2 near lower band (%B≤0.2) → UP — bonus (100% in backtest, matches lower-band-break reversal); 🟡 Edge entry %B in 0.55~0.8 or 0.40~0.45 — high mid-leg breakout risk (17~26% historically), but data supports continuing the chain after breakout (post-breakout leg hit-rate unchanged) · accumulating, to be re-validated

Plan Window	Legs	Progress

3-Leg Plan (martingale chain: each leg follows the single-period call; any win closes the plan, next window starts a new one; 3 straight losses = plan lost · from window 09170000 · last 7 days · paged)

Markers (%B = candle position within BOLL(20,2.5); red/green dot = triggered on any leg): 🔴 C1 near upper band (%B≥0.8) → DOWN · C3 near mid (0.45~0.55) — avoid (+1.6pp when removed); 🟢 C2 near lower band (%B≤0.2) → UP — bonus (100% in backtest); 🟡 Edge entry %B in 0.55~0.8 or 0.40~0.45 — high mid-leg breakout risk (17~26%), but data supports continuing the chain after breakout · accumulating, to be re-validated

Plan Window	Legs	Progress

4-Leg Plan (martingale chain: same rules as 3-leg, up to 4 legs · from window 09170000 · last 7 days · paged)

Disclaimer. BTC5.cloud publishes statistical measurements and algorithmic predictions for Polymarket's BTC 5-minute Up/Down markets. All content is for research and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. Historical hit rates — whether backtested or live — describe past windows only and do not guarantee future results; figures marked "test" are backtest backfill, not live trading. Trading prediction markets involves substantial risk of loss, and martingale-style chains can amplify a single plan's loss across consecutive legs. You are solely responsible for your own decisions and any losses incurred. Nothing on this site is a recommendation to buy or sell any contract. About this site →